| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | California | 15-34 | 1438.2 | -45.6 | 1392.6 | 45.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Fresno State | 27-36 | 1392.6 | -45.2 | 1347.4 | 45.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 14-45 | 1347.4 | -11.1 | 1336.3 | 17.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Oregon | 7-41 | 1336.3 | -1.4 | 1334.9 | 2.2% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | L | Houston | 24-27 | 1334.9 | -26.2 | 1308.7 | 24.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | App State | 23-27 | 1308.7 | -23.7 | 1285.0 | 34.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 14-39 | 1285.0 | -33.8 | 1251.2 | 32.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Lafayette | 45-13 | 1251.2 | +0.0 | 1251.2 | 19.3% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Washington State | 10-7 | 1251.2 | +57.9 | 1309.1 | 25.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Sam Houston | 17-21 | 1309.1 | -60.6 | 1248.5 | 64.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tulsa | 14-31 | 1248.5 | -54.8 | 1193.7 | 71.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Washington State | 8-32 | 1193.7 | -15.9 | 1177.8 | 24.0% |